The majority holds but the coalition is weakening
The new electoral law was approved by the Chamber of Deputies with 217 votes in favour, but the final result does not erase the divisions that emerged during the debate. The defeat by a single vote of the amendment on preferential voting showed a majority that remains united when it has to support the government, but is far less disciplined when candidacies, seats and the future balance of power between the parties are at stake. This is not a government crisis: it is the beginning of the internal competition within the centre-right ahead of 2027. The defeat carries particular weight because Giorgia Meloni had chosen to take political ownership of the battle, challenging the opposition to give up the secret ballot. The rebellion from within the majority showed that the Prime Minister’s authority is not enough to neutralise the interests of individual parliamentary groups when the debate concerns control over electoral lists and the prospects of re-election. Closed lists strengthen party leaderships, while preferential voting gives more space to competition between candidates: behind what may appear to be a technical issue lies the most sensitive question of the next legislature, namely the selection of the future parliamentary class. The turmoil in the Chamber also showed that the majority has not yet decided in what form it will contest the next election. The new system, entirely proportional and built around a majority bonus for any coalition exceeding 42 per cent, makes the boundaries of the centre-right decisive. In this context, Roberto Vannacci is no longer merely an external competitor, but a variable capable of influencing whether the coalition can secure the bonus at all. For Meloni, Futuro Nazionale is both a rival, because it draws support mainly from the more identity-driven part of the right, and a potential ally, because its votes may become indispensable. For Matteo Salvini, the problem is even more direct: bringing Vannacci back into the coalition would mean recognising a party born from a split within the League and potentially capable of overtaking it. The vote in which Brothers of Italy supported the amendment on preferential voting tabled by Futuro Nazionale, while the League and Forza Italia opposed it, does not automatically point to a new alliance, but it does show that the relationship with Vannacci has now become part of the internal dynamics of the governing majority. The electoral reform was supposed to provide the centre-right with a stable framework for 2027, but it has instead brought all its contradictions to the surface earlier than expected. The opposition, too, achieved above all a tactical victory. It succeeded in turning the defeat of the amendment into a political setback for the Prime Minister and in exposing the divisions within the majority, but it did not prevent the reform from being approved. At the same time, the new system also forces the broad progressive alliance to define its own boundaries. If the majority bonus depends on crossing the 42 per cent threshold, the Democratic Party, the Five Star Movement, the Greens and Left Alliance and the centrist parties cannot limit themselves to a vague electoral understanding: they must decide whom to include, what leadership to put forward and around which programme to build the coalition. The reform was therefore designed to guarantee stability after the election, but risks shifting instability to the phase before the vote, forcing both sides into very broad alliances that may be politically difficult to hold together. The real political development of the week is therefore not simply the turmoil in Parliament or the majority’s defeat on preferential voting. It is the fact that the 2027 election campaign has already begun and that the centre-right, while remaining solid in Parliament, has not yet resolved the question of its future shape. Meloni’s leadership remains dominant, but it does not eliminate competition between allies, while the growth of Futuro Nazionale makes it increasingly difficult to imagine a straightforward revival of the coalition that won in 2022. The electoral law was supposed to establish how Italy will vote. The debate in the Chamber showed that the decisive question will instead be with whom.
