Donald Trump reclaims the White House: an analysis of his victory and its implications
The presidential election on November 5 marked Donald Trump’s return to the White House, in a race where outgoing Vice President Kamala Harris lost by a much larger margin than polls had anticipated. The Associated Press confirmed on Wednesday morning that, even though a lengthy count was expected, Trump had already reached the 270 electoral votes required for victory by winning all seven swing states, including key “Blue Wall” states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan — historically Democratic strongholds. This was an unequivocal victory across the board.
According to initial post-election analysis, one of the decisive factors in Trump’s victory was his success in diversifying his voter base, gaining substantial support from Latino and Black communities, which traditionally voted Democratic or had chosen not to vote due to disillusionment. Economic issues and immigration were central to the Republican strategy: while the American economy is currently robust, it has seen turbulent years, and Trump capitalized on economic concerns and fears surrounding immigration growth, advocating an “America First” approach.
Harris, despite advocating a more progressive platform, was unable to break away from the legacy of the Biden administration, which had faced heavy criticism over inflation management and social policies. This association with the previous administration proved particularly burdensome for her candidacy, limiting her ability to present an independent and compelling platform. In the wake of this defeat, the Democratic Party faces a period of deep reflection and self-analysis, recognizing the need to rethink its strategies and message delivery, especially for suburban and ethnic community voters.
Conversely, Trump’s victory strengthens his position within the Republican Party, solidifying his leadership and setting a clear direction for the coming years. His ability to mobilize a broad base of supporters, backed by assertive and direct communication, is likely to influence U.S. political dynamics well beyond 2024.
Naturally, repercussions will also be felt overseas. In foreign policy, Trump’s victory could weaken transatlantic ties, leading Europe to invest more in its own defense and assume a more autonomous role, especially in strategically significant areas like the Mediterranean. Economically, a return to American protectionism could harm European exports, impacting key sectors such as automotive and agriculture, which are crucial for Italy. Regarding Ukraine, Trump might reduce American support against Russia, potentially pushing Kyiv to seek new alliances or even consider a nuclear arsenal for self-defense.Trump’s election, which signals significant changes, is nevertheless expected to maintain continuity in the Middle East, with strong support for Israel and the pursuit of normalized relations with Saudi Arabia.
There are still a few steps to follow in the coming months leading up to the formal assumption of office and the start of the new president’s term. To be formally declared “president-elect,” Trump must wait until December 17, when electors meet in the Electoral College to officially select the president and vice president. States have until a week prior (December 11) to count all votes and resolve any disputes related to their selection of electors. On January 3, 2025, the new Congress will convene for the first time, and a new Speaker of the House will be chosen. On January 6, Congress will meet in a joint session to count the votes of the 538 electors and certify the winner — on the same day in 2021 when Trump’s supporters stormed the Capitol to disrupt the certification process. Finally, Donald Trump will be inaugurated in a ceremony in front of the Capitol in Washington, D.C., on January 20, marking the official start of the presidential term on “Inauguration Day.”
