Italy, leader of stability
You can get used to anything, even ungovernability. That seems to be the case in France, where this week the shortest-lived government of the Fifth Republic, led by Michel Barnier, fell. It lasted just three months. And it did so in grand style, a record-breaking event not seen since 1962. This collapse came via a parliamentary no-confidence vote on a budget law brimming with sacrifices, a law now needing complete reinvention before year’s end, potentially triggering a clash with Brussels. This marks the third government—or rather, attempted government—in just two years.
The ball is back in the court of President Emmanuel Macron, who will address the French people in a live TV broadcast. While in Riyadh on an official visit to Saudi Arabia, Macron has already reassured everyone that he will not resign and will stay in office until the end of his mandate in May 2027. All eyes are now on Paris to see what happens next. Macron faces two possible paths to resolve the budget crisis and hastily construct yet another government attempt, knowing that the National Assembly cannot be dissolved for another year, as stipulated by the French Constitution.
One option is to aim for the center again, the so-called Republican Arc, and build a government likely led by socialists, excluding the extremes: the parties of Marine Le Pen (far right) and Jean-Luc Mélenchon (far left). However, the numbers would be tight, and this route appears difficult. Alternatively, Macron could simply replace Barnier with a new leader, leaving the current majority—which failed on the budget law—intact. This would be a sort of quick and cynical makeover but would require external support from Marine Le Pen.
The French crisis elevates Italy to the position of Europe’s most stable government, despite a key reshuffle this week. Tommaso Foti has been appointed as the new Minister for European Affairs, Cohesion Policies, the South, and the PNRR (National Recovery and Resilience Plan). He replaces Raffaele Fitto, now European Commissioner for Cohesion Policy and Regional Affairs and also an Executive Vice President of the European Commission.
Foti’s appointment, already anticipated yesterday, reflects Giorgia Meloni’s intent to promptly resolve the issue of Fitto’s succession with a figure from the same party, avoiding a government reshuffle. Thus, rumors or requests suggesting that Fitto’s position should go to a Forza Italia representative have gone unheeded.
Previously the Fratelli d’Italia leader in the Chamber of Deputies, Foti now takes charge of strategic dossiers involving the PNRR and southern Italy’s development.
However, a storm could be brewing in Italy, stemming from the Stellantis case. The automotive company is in serious crisis (and it’s not alone—Volkswagen, after 87 years, has announced for the first time the closure of some plants). In the coming weeks, Stellantis will proceed with the collective dismissal of 97 workers at its plants in Pomigliano d’Arco, Mirafiori, Piedimonte San Germano, and Melfi, citing redundancies due to the company’s “intention to terminate all existing contracts” by December 31. This notice was sent to the relevant trade unions.
And politics? How will it react?
