The Trade War
On Wednesday, with the solemnity of someone announcing a Pyrrhic victory, U.S. President Donald Trump decided to suspend for 90 days most of the tariffs he had only just introduced himself. According to the official narrative—enthusiastically spread by the White House—this was a refined strategic move, a carefully choreographed tactical maneuver. “It was the plan all along,” said Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. “You’ve just witnessed the greatest economic strategy ever carried out by an American president,” added advisor Stephen Miller, with the fervor typical of someone who confuses propaganda with reality.
The truth, however, appears to be much simpler—and more mundane: Trump backed down out of fear. Fear of a financial crisis that, initially seen as a passing storm, was beginning to look more like a full-blown hurricane. Markets had reacted to the tariffs with sharp and visible declines. Investors, already on edge over inflation and the start of earnings season, had begun to voice their concerns.
And so, amid rising rhetoric, reality came knocking at the White House door. The spike in yields on U.S. Treasury bonds—seen as a key indicator of market confidence—sent a clear message: the tariff policy wasn’t just hurting Wall Street, it was directly undermining trust in the American economy. And Trump, who proudly calls himself a businessman and loathes bad economic news, decided to take a step back.
At that point, Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan and a respected voice in financial circles—and, it seems, on Fox News—stepped in. In a televised appearance, Dimon said the tariffs would likely lead to a recession. Just a few hours later, Trump praised Dimon’s brilliance in what looked like a textbook case of self-reinforcing logic.
The plot twist came suddenly and without warning: at 1:18 p.m. Washington time, the President posted on Truth the announcement of the suspension, catching even his closest aides off guard. In the post—apparently written “from the heart” and without consulting lawyers or experts—Trump said the pause would serve to negotiate “fair deals,” adding that “everyone wants to deal with us because now we’re strong.” The message was met with enthusiasm on U.S. markets: the Dow Jones jumped 4.5% in a few hours. In Europe, however, the mood remained cautious: Milan’s stock exchange and other major European markets closed in the red, a sign that confidence was far from fully restored.
To complicate matters, it was later clarified that the 90-day suspension would not apply to all countries. The base tariff of 10% would only be extended to those willing to negotiate a trade agreement. The one notable exception: China. Beijing will continue to face combined tariffs of 145%, including the 125% recently announced by Trump plus an earlier 20% penalty related to fentanyl. In response, China raised its own countertariffs on American goods from 84% to 125%.
In his now-familiar style, Trump was quick to clarify that this was only a pause, not a surrender. Tariffs, he said, remain a necessary response to trade imbalances, and the suspension is set to last only until July. In the meantime, a window has opened for negotiations, with dozens of countries—including the European Union—ready to play the diplomatic card. The United States has declared that it will negotiate with the EU “as a single bloc,” avoiding bilateral talks with individual member states. Italy has already moved into action: Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni announced a trip to Washington on April 17 to try to de-escalate tensions and propose the mutual removal of industrial tariffs.
For now, the trade war is on hold. But with Trump at the helm, it’s impossible to say whether this marks a real opening to dialogue—or just a tactical pause destined to be short-lived.
