Between divisions and broad understandings, parties to the test of the vote

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The only sticking point at this political juncture is the resilience of the Draghi government. It has taken his alchemy to hold together a transversal majority that, a week after the administrative elections, but especially a year after the general elections, is proving to be in constant motion and in search of new balances. The Prime Minister has managed in recent days to ensure the stability of the government even on a measure as complex as the competition bill, on which the first approval came in the Senate on Monday. But if on the institutional front the political forces are proving cooperative, on the domestic front, on the contrary, they are showing great reluctance and polarization. But above all, tension. That tension that preludes new convergences. The administrative test, needless to say, will be crucial for many parties and coalitions.

Dominating the local news, but not only, in recent days has been Lega leader Matteo Salvini. The controversial foreign policy line is stirring his ranks and speculation is gaining momentum that an internal faction represented by the most Atlanticist and governmental led by Giorgetti is strengthening. The plan for the trip to Moscow, Capuano’s strange intermediations, on which Copasir has also opened an investigation, and the alleged meeting with the Russian ambassador in Rome, aside from the “aggressive” attitude in the news, reports denounced by the “Captain’s” loyalists, are negatively affecting consensus. Polls speak of a vertical collapse of the Lega and the administrative vote, together with the workhorse of the referendum questions, is a test: a confirmation of the decline could open a serious internal question within the party.

And this is also why an alliance with Forza Italia is out of the question, with the exception of a few municipalities where they run divided. The two parties need each other. And both need Berlusconi, who has promised his direct participation in the final rush for administrative elections. The Cavaliere continues to be the soul and lighthouse of his party, with a leadership that has never been questioned, not even by Tajani (who, by the way, did not shine at the EPP congress in Rotterdam, garnering few votes for one of the party’s vice-presidencies). Even if internal annoyances are not lacking, procured mainly by the rift of Minister Mariastella Gelmini, who has expressed her disagreement with the party line, while denying her rapprochement with Calenda.

Also falling is the Five Star Movement. The party led by Conte is facing a major identity crisis. From the agreement on sending arms to Ukraine and on the bathing knot to, most significantly, the loss of the chairmanship in the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee, the weakness of Conte’s leadership has deepened in recent weeks. Not only that. Since the beginning of the legislature, the dropouts in the M5s group have been impressive: there are 155 deputies today and there have been 66 dropouts (there were 221 at the time of the proclamation of those elected in 2018, at the beginning of the legislature), while in the Senate today there are 72 senators left with 36 dropouts (there were 108 at the beginning of the legislature), so the M5s has lost, in total, 102 parliamentarians (there were 340 at the beginning of the legislature), a “hecatomb”.

Democratic Party and Fratelli d’Italia, on the other hand, are right now the ” rivals to beat”. The main standard bearer of government, the Pd, and the bulwark of opposition, FdI, are now reaping the results of coherence and an exploit of theirs in the administrative elections is predictable, confirmed by Euromedia’s latest polls, which picture Meloni’s party at 22% (first party in Italy) and Letta’s at 21.5%. And the hypothesis of a constitutional pact between the two parties is gaining credence these days, according to which they are both working on a convergence at the center, which could be tested as soon as the administrative round, so as to free themselves from the current “obligatory alliances”. A possible government pact? Hard to imagine, but the recent geometries of broad understandings have taught that nothing is impossible. Draghi, for the time being, remains watching.

 

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