The Conclave Between Faith and Geopolitics
“I’d love to be Pope, that would be my number one choice”. This statement, delivered with characteristic irony by Donald Trump, quickly made headlines around the world. But as often happens with the former U.S. president, the irony carries a pointed political message. The reference to the Conclave, scheduled to begin on May 7 to elect the successor to Pope Francis, should not be dismissed as a mere joke—it’s a signal, perhaps even a warning. In a world where religion and politics increasingly intertwine, even the selection of the next pontiff risks becoming a battleground between opposing worldviews.
Pope Francis, who passed away on April 30, leaves behind a legacy charged with tension. His pontificate pushed the Church toward openness on migration, climate advocacy, interreligious dialogue, and a greater role for synodality. These themes inspired millions of faithful worldwide, but also sparked friction with more conservative factions within the episcopate—especially in the United States.
It is from the U.S. that one of the most controversial and influential forces in the upcoming Conclave now emerges. Groups dubbed the “MAGA Catholics” (from Trump’s slogan “Make America Great Again”) are backing candidates who represent a return to traditional Church values. Among these are Cardinal Raymond Leo Burke—an outspoken critic of Pope Francis—and New York Archbishop Timothy Dolan, who has maintained cordial ties with Trump and Republican circles. Their goal is clear: to usher in a papacy that reverts to a more rigid approach on doctrine, morality, and liturgy.
Yet the American Church is far from monolithic. Other U.S. cardinals—such as Wilton Gregory, Robert McElroy, Blase Cupich, and Joseph Tobin—embody the progressive legacy of Francis. Known for championing social justice, human rights, and poverty relief, they represent a different vision of American Catholicism: one that is inclusive, compassionate, and focused on the marginalized.
Meanwhile, Cardinal Angelo Becciu’s recent renunciation of his right to vote in the Conclave adds a noteworthy dimension to the unfolding scenario. Becciu, previously implicated in a Vatican financial scandal, formally stepped aside this week after accepting the Holy See’s request to withdraw. Once considered close to Pope Francis, his fall from grace and voluntary exclusion highlight the Church’s ongoing efforts toward transparency—while also exposing the internal fractures within the Vatican hierarchy.
The upcoming Conclave will thus be shaped by complex dynamics, with alliances formed along theological, cultural, and geopolitical lines. The conservative faction is looking beyond the Atlantic as well, with figures such as Robert Sarah (Guinea) and Péter Erdő (Hungary) emerging as contenders aligned with more traditionalist sensibilities. Behind the scenes, networks of influence move discreetly, and external political power—Trump’s included—may not control the process, but certainly seeks to influence its tone and direction.
A papacy aligned with Trump-era values would have far-reaching consequences: a likely cooling of dialogue with China (which Francis had actively pursued), increased distance from moderate Islam, and a possible rapprochement with Europe’s nationalist Christian right. It would also mark a retreat from the Vatican’s progressive engagement on issues like environmental justice and migrant advocacy.
Still, seasoned Vatican observers urge caution. No political leader, however powerful, can control a Conclave. But they can help shape the narrative around it—and use it as ideological leverage. In that sense, Trump has already achieved something: turning the papal succession into yet another front in a global culture war. As always, the next Pope will ultimately be chosen by a body of men in prayerful discernment. But in an age where everything is politicized, even the election of the Vicar of Christ reflects the tensions of the modern world. As the Church searches for its next shepherd, the hope is that the Holy Spirit can still find its way through the noise—and assert its voice above the earthly power plays.
