Meloni between two fires: the Almasri case and the Santanchè issue shake the majority

In recent days, the Italian political landscape has been shaken by a case that has put Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and some members of her government under the spotlight. The situation revolves around Osama Almasri, a Libyan military officer arrested in Turin on January 19, 2025, under a warrant from the International Criminal Court (ICC) for war crimes and crimes against humanity.

The situation became even more complicated when, two days after his arrest, Almasri was released and repatriated to Libya on a plane operated by the Italian secret services. The justification given was a procedural error in the arrest request that allegedly prevented the validation of his detention. However, this move sparked a major controversy: the ICC expressed outrage over his release without prior notice, and the Rome prosecutor’s office launched an investigation into charges of aiding and abetting and embezzlement, involving not only Meloni but also Ministers Carlo Nordio (Justice), Matteo Piantedosi (Interior), and Undersecretary Alfredo Mantovano.

Reactions came swiftly. Meloni defended the government’s actions, emphasizing that the decision was made to ensure national security and accusing some judges of interfering in political decisions: “There are some judges who want to decide industrial, environmental, and immigration policies. If they want to govern, they should run for office,” the Prime Minister stated. These words immediately fueled the debate, particularly among the opposition. Elly Schlein, Secretary of the Democratic Party, urged the Prime Minister to report to Parliament, while Giuseppe Conte of the Five Star Movement – who hadn’t been heard from in a while – criticized Meloni for attacking the judiciary instead of providing clear explanations about the handling of the case.

The tension between the government and the judiciary is nothing new, but the Almasri case has escalated it to an even higher level. For the opposition, this is an example of messy and opaque political management, while for the majority, Almasri’s repatriation was an act of national sovereignty. However, the ICC is not backing down and may demand further clarifications, including on the role played by Italian intelligence services in the entire affair.

At the same time, another legal issue is creating tensions within the government. Tourism Minister Daniela Santanchè is under investigation for aggravated fraud against the INPS (Italy’s national social security agency). The accusation concerns the alleged fraudulent request for COVID-19 furlough funds for 13 employees of her business group, who, in reality, reportedly continued working remotely. The estimated damage to INPS exceeds €126,000. This case, already known for some time, took a significant turn when the Court of Cassation ruled that the trial would remain in Milan, rejecting the defense’s request to transfer it to Rome. The next preliminary hearing is scheduled for March 26, and a decision on the request for indictment could arrive by May.

Santanchè’s position remains uncertain: despite the situation, the minister has insisted that she has no intention of resigning unless explicitly asked to do so by Meloni. However, internal pressure within the majority is mounting. Ignazio La Russa, Senate President and a member of Meloni’s party, Fratelli d’Italia, commented on the Cassation Court’s decision, calling it “a factor to consider,” suggesting that resignation may no longer be off the table. Discomfort is also growing among allies. If the minister is indicted, Meloni will face a tough choice: defend Santanchè at the risk of further weakening the government’s stability, or distance herself and accept her resignation.