Investiture that will mark the future
360 votes were needed. She gathered 401, 41 more than the quorum, and significantly more than the 9-vote margin five years ago. With this electoral result, Ursula von der Leyen is, once again, the President of the European Commission. The “Ursula majority” project sees the renewal of the moderate coalition supporting her. The establishment remains the same as in the past (even Metsola was reconfirmed as President of the European Parliament). What seemed to have changed was the political wind. That right-wing wind from the Carpathians, the Apennines, the Rhine valleys, the Ardennes, and the Alps seemed capable of shifting the balance. But that was not the case.
The media analysis the day after is largely in agreement that this outcome is the result of a “cordon sanitaire” which, following the model of elections in France, aimed to prevent a rightward shift. Von der Leyen won thanks to the three parties of the Ursula majority: PPE, the Socialists, and the Liberals. But she won mainly thanks to the Greens. It’s no coincidence that in her speech, she renewed her commitment to the Green Deal. Now, she will have to manage a coalition of four groups united by loyalty to Europe and Ukraine but certainly not marked by cohesion, especially on the Green Deal. Yet, Ursula has achieved the first of her goals: basing her mandate on a “democratic center,” kicking out any extremist drift from her majority. Giorgia Meloni’s decision not to support von der Leyen is risky, both because it could marginalize her party – and thus Italy – in European dynamics and because within the Conservatives there are at least two delegations, the Czech and the Dutch, that have decided to give their support. The new President must now assemble her team of commissioners. The moves she makes in the coming weeks will determine how the EU will defend the internal market from inflation and economic crises, how Europe will strengthen its defense industry in the face of a potential second Trump presidency, and how it will ensure that the Union meets its climate goals by 2050.
The week was also significant for another investiture, that of Trump at the Republican convention, which officially launched him as a candidate for the White House. Trump’s nomination was widely anticipated and simultaneously of great symbolic importance, especially due to the attack he suffered a few days ago during a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania. More awaited was the nomination of his vice president, and Vance’s profile fits what Trump was looking for in this role: an energetic, ambitious figure – but not too much to overshadow the former President – and a possible heir to the Tycoon’s throne. According to Politico, the choice of J.D. Vance as a running mate suggests that Trump is more convincingly following the economic policy instincts that helped him secure his first term in 2016 and no longer feels the need to appease the kind of libertarian conservatives who have dominated the party for decades. Few Republicans have been more critical than Vance of the party’s modern economic conventions, embracing policies on tariffs, raising the minimum wage, and increasing barriers to corporate mergers. The nomination is also further proof that Trump intends to delve deeper into industrial policy, where the government plays a much more active role in shaping the economy with tools like tariffs. Polls should be taken with caution for a few days, waiting for them to reflect reactions to the Trump attack and the results of the Milwaukee convention. However, the post-debate situation is becoming clearer, with Trump leading slightly on a national scale and Biden needing to win in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Additionally, the Butler shooting, which could consecrate Trump as a hero or martyr of the year, has also changed the entire campaign dynamic by introducing a theme of “national unity” that did not exist before and could lower the level of conflict between Republicans and Democrats. In this new atmosphere, the elderly and experienced figure – if perceived as such – of Biden could also regain significant weight.
